By Karthikeyan A, Co-founder & CTO, Raptee.HV
As the world moves steadily towards electric transportation and cleaner energy, the spotlight is firmly on lithium – a mineral that sits at the heart of this transition. Whether it’s electric motorcycles navigating city roads or large-scale solar and wind projects storing energy for later use, lithium-based batteries are the common thread. But with demand growing faster than ever and other technologies catching up, it’s worth asking: will lithium continue to drive the future of mobility, or is its time limited?
Why Lithium Matters More Than Ever
The unique properties of lithium make it ideal for rechargeable batteries. Because lithium atoms are lightweight and highly reactive, they can store more energy in a smaller space. This makes batteries not only compact but also powerful – a crucial factor for electric vehicles, where every kilogram saved can mean extra kilometers of range. No other material currently offers this balance of performance, cost-efficiency, and commercial readiness, which is why lithium-ion batteries are used almost universally in EVs and renewable energy systems.
Recognizing this, India has launched an ambitious national strategy to secure its future access to lithium and other key minerals. The ₹34,300 crore National Critical Mineral Mission is focused on reducing dependency on imports by exploring domestic reserves, investing in overseas assets, and building processing capacity at home. With ₹1,500 crore allocated from the Union Budget and public sector firms expected to contribute another ₹18,000 crore, the country is taking serious steps to strengthen its position in the global battery supply chain.
Where the World’s Lithium Comes From
Lithium isn’t rare in nature, but finding and refining it economically is a different story. Most of the world’s supply comes from a few countries. Australia leads production through mining, while South American nations like Chile, Argentina, and Bolivia – often referred to as the Lithium Triangle – hold over half of the planet’s lithium resources, mainly in salt flats. China, despite having smaller reserves, dominates the chemical processing part of the supply chain, refining more than half of the world’s lithium output.
This concentration of supply in a few regions poses challenges. Any disruption – be it geopolitical, environmental, or economic – can cause ripple effects across the globe. That’s why many countries, including India, are now prioritizing local exploration and forming new trade partnerships to reduce their exposure to international risks.
Can Lithium Meet the Growing Demand?
The surge in electric vehicle sales, energy storage projects, and personal electronics means global lithium demand is expected to grow several times over in the next decade. While current reserves are projected to last for many decades, this will depend heavily on how efficiently the world can extract, process, and recycle lithium.
Recycling, in particular, is seen as a game-changer. As more used batteries become available, extracting lithium from them can significantly ease the pressure on natural reserves. By 2040, experts believe that nearly a third of the global lithium supply could come from recycled materials. This not only makes economic sense but also supports sustainability by reducing mining activity and its environmental impact.
What Are the Realistic Alternatives?
Emerging alternatives to lithium-ion batteries span a spectrum of maturity, readiness, and application areas. Sodium-ion batteries are gaining attention as a near-term low-cost solution, especially for micro-EVs, scooters, and stationary storage. While they offer resilience in cold climates and energy densities approaching lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, their growth is expected to remain niche-reaching perhaps 3% of the global battery market by 2035-until manufacturing scales and energy density improves further.
Solid-state lithium-metal batteries promise significantly higher energy densities, faster charging, and improved safety. However, large-scale commercialization is still years away, due to challenges like stack pressure control and high costs. They may first appear in premium electric vehicles in the late 2020s, with broader adoption expected in the 2030s.
Lithium-sulfur batteries, boasting theoretical energy densities up to 2600 Wh/kg, hold promise for weight-sensitive applications like drones or aerospace. But with limited cycle life (~500 cycles), they remain confined to test labs and specialized use cases for now.
Hydrogen fuel cells, too, play a role-particularly in heavy-duty and long-range applications such as buses or commercial fleets. Passenger use remains low due to sparse refueling infrastructure. While the hydrogen market touched $2 billion in 2024, its EV application is expected to grow mainly through fleet-focused commercial vehicles over the next decade.
Each of these alternatives presents unique trade-offs in cost, energy density, lifecycle, and ecosystem readiness. While promising, none match lithium-ion’s all-round viability today.
Why Investment Still Favors Lithium
Despite the buzz around alternative technologies, most of the research and investment in the battery space continues to be focused on lithium. Global companies are spending billions to improve lithium battery chemistry – making them last longer, charge faster, and become more efficient. According to the International Energy Agency, around 70% of all battery R&D investment in 2023 went toward lithium-based technologies.
India is following suit. A significant portion of its funding under the National Critical Mineral Mission is aimed at supporting lithium exploration, refining, and battery innovation. Private companies, government agencies, and research institutions are working together to build a strong ecosystem that can support domestic EV and renewable energy goals.
Recycling: Extending Lithium’s Lifespan
What gives lithium even more staying power is the growing focus on battery recycling. As EVs age and reach end-of-life, the ability to recover lithium and reuse it in new batteries is becoming commercially viable. This not only reduces waste but also strengthens supply security and lowers costs in the long run.
India’s upcoming recycling incentive scheme, backed by the Mines Ministry, is expected to create a strong secondary market for lithium and other critical minerals. By encouraging battery makers and recyclers to close the loop, the country can reduce import dependency while building a more sustainable industrial base.
The Road Ahead
While new battery technologies will undoubtedly evolve and carve out space in the market, lithium continues to lead the pack by a wide margin. Its unique combination of performance, maturity, and industrial support makes it the most reliable choice for the current and next generation of electric vehicles and energy systems.
Lithium-ion packs offer the highest practical energy density today-ranging from 150-275 Wh/kg depending on the chemistry-enabling lighter and longer-range vehicles. Fast-charging capabilities, reaching full charge in under an hour, and exceptional longevity with 1,000-10,000+ cycles in some variants, further cement its dominance. Add to this a globally mature manufacturing base (2,000 GWh capacity as of 2023) and a recycling process that recovers over 95% of metals in pilot plants, and it becomes clear why lithium is irreplaceable in the near term.